The UN Food & Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the 12th annual joint outlook providing market projections to 2025 (including assumptions and data) for major agricultural commodities ― including biofuels. The upshot is that both ethanol and biodiesel production are expected to grow through 2025, albeit a more modestly for ethanol.
Global ethanol production is expected to expand modestly about 11% from 116 billion liters (30.6 billion gallons) in 2015 to 128.4 billion liters (33.9 billion gallons) by 2025 and 50% of it will come from Brazil. Biodiesel production is expected to increase 34% from 31 billion liters (8.2 billion gallons) in 2015 to 41.4 billion liters (10.9 billion gallons) by 2025, driven by policies in the U.S., Argentina, Brazil and Indonesia.
I took the data in study and developed the following charts showing the ethanol and biodiesel projection on an annual basis through 2025 and also by the major countries included in the study for 2025.
Other major findings for biofuels included the following:
The growth projection is especially interesting considering how controversial biofuels remain in the U.S., EU and elsewhere, with some NGOs advocating hard to abandon them completely. This analysis shows that might be hard to do, at least until there is significant EV penetration.