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Trump or No Trump: Obama’s Vision for U.S. Decarbonization by 2050

11.16.16 | Blog | By:

Trump or no Trump, the Obama Administration is planting one of its final seeds, making what could be a final statement on climate change, the need for decarbonization in the U.S. and how it can be achieved while growing the economy.  The report, which was submitted to the UN as the plan to tackle GHG emission cuts under the Paris Agreement, notes there are three main areas where major actions will need to be taken to achieve “deep economy-wide net GHG emissions”:

  1. Transitioning to a low-carbon energy system, by cutting energy waste, decarbonizing the electricity system and deploying clean electricity and low carbon fuels in the transportation, buildings, and industrial sectors;
  2. Sequestering carbon through forests, soils, and CO2 removal technologies, by bolstering the amount of carbon stored and sequestered in U.S. lands (“the land sink”) and deploying CO2 removal technologies like carbon beneficial bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), which can provide “negative emissions”; and
  3. Reducing non-CO2 emissions, such as methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gases, which result mainly from fossil fuel production, agriculture, waste, and refrigerants.

Here’s what that would look like by priority and sector:

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Decarbonizing transport, as you can see above, is a significant part of the plan. Right now, and as shown in the figure blow, transport represents 34% of CO2 emissions. Of that, CO2 emissions from cars and light trucks represents 19%, the largest share.

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The White House recommended the following actions to decarbonize transport:

  1. Increasing fuel efficiency. “Continuing to increase vehicle efficiency and fuel production efficiency will drive down energy use and emissions. Efficiency improvements may be particularly important for transportation modes that are the most difficult to electrify, such as airplanes, ships, and long-haul trucks.”
  1. Developing low-carbon transportation fuels and vehicles. That includes EVs, fuel-cell vehicles and biomass-fueled vehicles:

(a) Electric vehicles (EVs): “With a decarbonized electric power sector, EVs are effectively carbon-free vehicles. In addition, the electric drive in an EV is far more efficient than a conventional engine and transmission, meaning EVs consume less energy to drive a given distance than gasoline-powered vehicles. As technologies improve, allowing these vehicles to travel farther on a single charge, the vehicle types and uses will diversify, leading to greater market penetration. Both battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in electric vehicles provide unique opportunities.”

(b) Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs): “Like BEVs, FCEVs are low-carbon alternatives when powered by hydrogen generated from low-carbon sources, and they have much higher efficiencies than gasoline/diesel-powered vehicles, as well as a comparable range of driving distance.”

(c) Biomass-fueled vehicles: “When combined with carbon beneficial forms of biomass, ‘drop-in’ biofuels would have a key advantage in that they can be deployed without major changes to existing vehicles or fuel infrastructure.”

  1. Reducing vehicle miles traveled. “Transportation energy demand is influenced not only by available technology but also by societal trends. Improved and highly utilized mass transit, higher-density and mixed-use development, increased and efficient ridesharing, and walkable and bikeable neighborhoods can reduce the usage of passenger vehicles.” The White House adds that an analysis by DOE finds that these changes to the built environment alone could reduce GHG emissions from urban light-duty vehicles by as much as 16-18% by 2050, corresponding to a transportation sector emissions reduction of 10%.

In the White House’s “Smart Growth” scenario, the primary approach for achieving transportation sector emissions reductions is through strategies that limit the increases of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) as the U.S. population and economy grow (see figure below). This includes improved mass transit and urban planning. The deployment of clean vehicles is less rapid over the next 34 years, yet deployment of alternative fuel vehicles is still significant, with clean vehicles accounting for roughly one-third of light-duty vehicle sales in 2035 and over 40 percent of VMT in 2050.

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The White House notes:

“Compared to the MCS Benchmark scenario, the Smart Growth scenario involves a greater reliance on gasoline and diesel vehicles. Smart growth strategies achieve emissions reductions in other sectors (e.g., buildings) so achieving 80% requires less ambition in clean vehicle penetration. However, deploying smart growth strategies in parallel with electric drive vehicles has the opportunity to contribute to reductions beyond 80 percent.”

The White House also notes that despite major progress in decarbonizing the sector, the majority of total residual emissions in the energy sector in 2050 are from the transportation sector, and that means continued innovation is necessary.

“This includes cleaner and more efficient vehicles, as well as smart urban design that would reduce vehicle miles traveled. Advances in vehicle automation and connectivity could contribute to both, making efficient vehicles more cost-effective and freeing up urban space used for parking for other uses. For certain transportation modes—particularly those that are difficult to electrify like long-haul trucks and aircrafts—far more RDD&D is needed to uncover the most cost-effective ways to reduce GHG emissions.”

The figure below shows “innovation opportunities” for transportation, running the gamut from biofuels, to electric vehicles, to improved vehicle efficiency.  The question is, will President-Elect Trump see the same opportunities and capitalize on them, keeping the U.S. at the competitive forefront?

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