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IRENA: To Achieve a Sales Tipping Point, EVs Need to Achieve Parity with ICEVs

This week IRENA released the latest in its series of technology briefs on different aspects of renewable energy, this one on EVs. It outlines the “technological and policy advances that are still needed for EVs to help drive the transition to a sustainable global energy future.” IRENA found that increasing reliance on EV batteries and charging stations would support higher shares of solar and wind power, the key variable renewable energy (VRE) sources expected to be prominent in future power grids. Global growth to 160 million EVs could support VRE-based power generation on a large scale, the analysis finds. Other insights include the following:

  • Despite on-going battery performance improvements and cost reductions, EVs still face potentially important obstacles. “New models to be introduced in 2017 and 2018 will be able to drive up to 300 kilometres (km) per recharge, but battery packs up to 60 kilowatt-hour (kWh), even if battery costs drop from their current levels of around USD 350/ kWh to USD 150 kWh in the future, would cost USD 9 000, much more than the drive systems of today’s internal combustion engine vehicles [ICEVs]. Fuel savings will help pay this back, especially for high-mileage drivers.”
  • EV deployment depends on four concurrent strategies to ensure maximum benefits:(1) electrification of vehicles; (2) provision of sufficient charging equipment; (3) decarbonization of power generation; and (4) EV integration with the grid.
  • “Battery-electric vehicles provide zero-vehicle-emissions driving (for both carbon dioxide (CO2) and pollutant emissions), but the ‘upstream’ CO2 can be substantial, for example in countries with dominant coal power generation. Electric grids must be considerably decarbonised (to 600 grams (g)/ kWh or less) for EVs to have a CO2 advantage relative to similar sized hybrid internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Carbon intensities will need to continuously improve in the future, since hybrids and other ICE vehicles will also become more efficient.”
  • “To achieve a tipping point in sales, EVs will likely need to achieve near parity on a first cost basis with ICE vehicles, and provide sufficient amenities (such as driving range and recharging convenience), such that consumers do not consider them inferior to or comparable to ICEs.”
  • “EVs can be used to enable a higher share of variable renewable energy in the power system by: (i) actively using the mobile battery storage system in the vehicle in V2G applications, (ii) use of second-hand batteries in a ‘second life’ role as stationary battery storage systems, (iii) widespread deployment of charging technologies and infrastructure, (iv) evolution in consumer behaviour of EV owners, and (v) provision of other ancillary services from EVs to the grid. This occurs by making use of EV batteries to store excess electricity and to provide ancillary services to the grid, such as frequency regulation, shaving peak demand, power support to enhance the operation, and reserve capacity to secure the grid.” A schematic of what this looks like is shown in the figure below.

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