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REN21: R&D “Urgently” Needed for Biofuels in Aviation & Shipping Sectors

04.04.17 | Blog | By:

As sustainable energy experts from around the world gathered at the Sustainable Energy for All Forum (SE4ALL) in New York this week, REN21 released a report on the feasibility and challenges of achieving a 100% renewable energy future. The report analyzes the views of 114 energy experts from every region of the world, interviewed over the course of 2016. The results are clustered under topics defined as “12 Great Debates.”  One of those “debates” focused on renewables for transport and what the future holds for electrification versus biofuels. Key findings in this discussion included the following:

  • Experts from developing countries believed fossil fuels would continue to dominate for the next 30 years at least. This was partly due to an un-enthusiastic attitude about electric mobility – especially private e-vehicles, and partly to the lack of clear alternatives for marine and aviation transport. The overall consensus was that transport will be by far the most problematic sector to wean from fossil fuels – mainly oil. Interviewees agreed that the renewable energy share would at least triple from 3.5% to over 10% by 2050, while no one estimated a share of under 10%. Beyond that, the diversity of opinions was huge as shown in the figure below. It is clear that the future share of renewables in the transport sector is highly uncertain and that the debate is still at a very early stage.
  • With 73% in agreement, there was strong support for the view that battery-based electric mobility will be the main technology for individual road transport. In addition, an overwhelming majority of the experts (87%) believed that electric mobility will be designed around public transport systems such as light rail and e-busses. More than two-thirds (69%) suggested that a modular shift e.g. from road to rail, will be an essential part of a future sustainable transport system. A simple replacement of combustion engines with electric drives in private vehicles was not seen as a comprehensive, sustainable solution.
  • With regard to aviation, there is little debate around new renewable technologies other than biofuels and solar. This is highly problematic as it is a rapidly growing sector that currently represents almost 5% of the global transport energy demand. Research and development is urgently needed in this sector, the report notes.
  • While 64% of the interviewees saw bio- or synthetic fuels as possible replacements for fossil kerosene, 11% of the experts disagreed with this view and the remaining quarter was undecided. The future development of renewables for the aviation sector requires additional research and development, and as a weak link in the chain to a 100% renewable energy future, this must be addressed as a matter of urgency.
  • As for shipping, this sector uses only 2.5% of the global transport energy, but transports 90% of internationally traded goods. Container ships are considered the backbone of the global economy. Renewables for shipping is not being discussed and is seen as one of the “leading non-issues.” Research and development is urgently needed in this sector as well.
  • As with aviation, the (renewable) future of shipping is for the most part not even being discussed amongst energy experts, the report notes. As a consequence, there are no clear technology preferences other than replacing fossil fuels with bio fuels, which was supported by 60% of the experts interviewed. 19% disagreed and 21% remained neutral.
  • The majority of the experts interviewed saw biodiesel and bioethanol as the dominant biofuels for cars in future, with biodiesel dominating the heavy transport and shipping sectors. The market share of biomass to liquid (BTL) was seen as minor for the transport sector as a whole. However, the report notes the number of responses was low and these results should not be considered representative. Electrolysis was seen as the dominant production method for hydrogen in all sectors, followed by synfuels. There was a consensus among all interviewees that hydrogen will not be produced from fossil fuels. Synfuels might play a larger role for fueling trucks, busses, ships and planes.
  • To achieve 100% renewable energy supply on a global scale it is therefore urgent that all areas of transport be included in the discussion. Even with the advancement toward electric drives, technologies for energy intensive road transport modes, such as heavy-duty trucks, and construction and mining vehicles are lagging far behind.
  • During the course of this survey, renewable energy for ships was identified as one of the leading non-issues. Here too, research and development are urgently needed.

Other key findings in the report include the following:

  • More than 70% of the experts interviewed consider a global transition to 100% renewable energy to be both feasible and realistic, with European and Australian experts most strongly supporting this view.
  • There is an overwhelming consensus that renewable power will dominate in the future, with many noting that even large international corporations are increasingly choosing renewable energy products either from utilities or through direct investment in their own generating capacity.
  • Numerous companies, regions, islands and cities have set 100% renewable energy targets.
  • Nearly 70% of those interviewed expect the cost of renewables to continue to fall, beating all fossil fuels within 10 years’ time. Wind and solar photovoltaic are in fact already cost-competitive with new conventional generation in most OECD countries.
  • Countries as diverse as China and Denmark are demonstrating that GDP growth can be decoupled from increasing energy consumption.

 

Tammy Klein is a consultant and strategic advisor providing market and policy intelligence and analysis on transportation fuels to the auto and oil industries, governments, and NGOs. She writes and advises on petroleum fuels, biofuels, alternative fuels, automotive fuels, and fuels policy.

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